Monday, May 18, 2009

Irrational Behavior

I've been digging again, with regards to $SPY this time. I like highly traded indexes, they give me a lot of touched data. I've been trying to quantify selling and buying pressure. My logic is as follows





Pressure TypeVolumeChange in Price
BuyHighPositive
SellHighNegative

From the table above, one can see that a plot of Volume versus change in Price should be parabolic. The logic is that large positive changes in price, i.e. a demand would cause a spike in volume. And conversely, a large selloff would no doubt cause a large negative change in price and large volume. What I found is *very* different. The first plot below is the exact plot, volume vs change in price.


I'm not sure why it doesn't behave as I expect. Even more odd is the upper cloud of data. That is data since the beginning of the year. This shows the volume is high sporadic, in my guess, due to the volatility of the market. Every bit of news scares the traders and they either sell off or buy, very irrational to me (although I could be reading this wrong). The next plot is a version of the same plot above with time inserted. It shows the irrational volume most recent, can anyone explain this?

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